Maricopa, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS65 KPSR 131706
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail through
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Rex blocking continues over western Conus and the eastern Pacific
Ocean, with a closed low centered over northern Mexico and a high
pressure straddling the eastern Pacific and northern California.
This pattern will continue to promote east/northeast winds across
the area, with some occasional breezy conditions (gusts up around 20
mph) in the afternoons. The jet that brought breezy to locally windy
conditions to the region yesterday and Sunday has shifted to the
west/southwest, with breezy to locally windy conditions (Santa Ana
winds) over southern CA, just west of our forecast area. The
aforementioned high pressure will strengthen over the next couple of
days leading to H5 heights rising from a current 578-580 dm range to
a 581-584 dm range over our area by late Wednesday. The
strengthening ridge and corresponding rising heights aloft will
result in a warming trend, with temperatures going well above normal
tomorrow. Afternoon high temperatures today will be in the low to
mid 70s across the lower deserts and in the 60s across the higher
terrain. By tomorrow, afternoon high temperatures will warm to the
mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts and the mid 60s to low 70s
across the higher terrain. These temperatures forecasted for
tomorrow are around 6-10 degrees above normal, however they are
still a few degrees shy of the daily records. With high pressure
building over our region, dry conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Ensemble members are in good agreement that some form of the western
Conus blocking pattern (whether it be a Rex or omega block) will
hold through the weekend and into early next week. During this time
frame, strong high pressure will be maintained with temperatures
remaining well above normal (6-10 degrees) continuing into early
next week. The warmest temperatures are forecasted to be during the
end of the workweek, coinciding with the high pressure near its
climatological max. Over the weekend, the high pressure across the
region is expected to retrograde slightly into the NW coastline or
northeast Pacific, however ridging will still be present over our
region, with only a few degrees of potential cooling due to the
relaxation of H5 heights. With ridging continuing to dominate our
region into early next week, dry conditions will also continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday afternoon
under clear skies. Confidence is good that a westerly wind shift
will occur in the PHX metro later than usual this afternoon with
light winds quickly reverting back to easterly be mid evening. A
light northerly wind will be preferred across SE California with a
tendency towards a W/SW nocturnal component. Extended periods of
nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will warm through the week, going well above normal,
and maximizing during the end of the workweek. Slight cooling of a
few degrees is expected this weekend, but temperatures will remain
above normal. MinRH values of 15-30% and overnight recoveries of
40-70% will continue through the end of the workweek. This weekend
minRH will drop to 15-25% with overnight recoveries of 30-60%.
Wind speeds return to more seasonable levels today and continue
through the weekend. Winds will maintain a northeasterly to
easterly prevailing direction this week across the eastern
districts and a more northerly component across the western
districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich/18
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich