Maricopa, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS65 KPSR 240500
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1000 PM MST Mon Jun 23 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures through Wednesday followed by a return
to above normal as early as Thursday, then lower desert highs
return to around 110 degrees this weekend

- Dry conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies with
afternoon and evening breeziness (15 to 25 mile per hour gusts)

- Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms in Southeast Arizona
beginning Tuesday, with slight chances (10 to 20 percent) in
Southern Gila County beginning on Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure circulation that brought below normal temperatures
yesterday has begun to break of from the main troughing feature,
resulting in a weak cut-off low thats looks to linger to the west of
the desert SW over the next several days. WV imagery currently shows
the core of the low on the coastline of South-central CA. Today,
high temperatures will float in the high 90s to low 100s, still
below normal, but will gradually increase by 1-3 degrees each day
through the middle of this week. This is due to the cut-off low
degrading, allowing for high pressure to start building back over
the region.

Moving forward, as early as Thursday, above normal temperatures will
return to the lower deserts, with temperatures ranging between 103-
107. Due to the increasing temperatures, portions of the lower
desert will begin to see Moderate HeatRisk, as 500 mb heights will
be between 586-588 dam and heights nearing 591-593 dam by the
weekend, where Moderate HeatRisk will be widespread with localized
Major. Similarly to how temperatures increase gradually early on in
the week as the low pressure degrades, temperatures will continue to
gradually climb each day (2-3 degrees/day) as the high pressure
builds in the later half of the week. Models are in good agreement
of the stair stepping temperatures, as the NBM shows very litle
spread.

There is already some good convergence of moisture going on in
central and northern Mexico that will funnel up through New Mexico
the next few days and even bleed into southeast AZ starting Tuesday.
Unfortunately moisture will not be able to push too far into AZ
initially due to the persistence of the dry southwest flow aloft
that is keeping our PWAT value`s 40-80% of normal for this time of
year, with Min RH values ranging between 6-15% this week. However,
NBM continues to show trends of convective storms staying mainly
east of a line from Tucson to Globe starting tomorrow throughout the
week. It`s not until Thursday, and through the weekend, that the
higher terrains in S/SE Gila County may see some light showers with
PoPs and thunderstorm chances between 10-20%.

Better moisture (PWATs >1.0") could possibly begin to push into the
region by early July, as global models are forecasting above normal
PWATS along with the subtropical high starting to set up over the
four corners region. Additionally by early July timeframe, with the
subtropical high potentially in place, the GFS ensembles also note
the 500mb winds shifting from primarily southwesterly flow to more
southerly/southeasterly. However, a weak coastal trough toward the
beginning of next week may initially hold back the high pressure and
keep some semblance of a dry southwesterly wind component in parts
of the region, but by around July 4th long- range global models are
still favoring the high to strengthen and become more expansive
across the Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Occasionally gusty winds with a southerly cross runway component
will be the primary weather impact Tuesday under clear skies.
Confidence is good that a W/SW wind direction late this evening will
eventually shift to easterly overnight as speeds weaken. Trends in
winds Tuesday will be very similar to today including good
confidence of a prolonged period of southerly cross runway winds
gusting around 15kt through midday before veering to SW by mid/late
afternoon.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Tuesday evening under
clear skies. Wind speeds will weaken overnight with some potential
for variability around sunrise. Directional shifts at KIPL will be
similar to today though gusts should be more muted Tuesday. South
winds will be preferred at KBLH with a few afternoon gusts 15-20kt.
While likely not directly impacting sfc visibilities, lofted
smoke/haze may affect occasionally affect slantwise visibilities
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no significant fire weather concerns through the next 7
days, aside from perhaps some isolated dry thunderstorm impacts in
parts of southern Gila County (toward the White Mountains) as early
as tomorrow. Seasonal breeziness is expected in the afternoons and
evenings with daily peak gusts up to 15-25 mph. Conditions overall
will remain dry with daily minimum RH values down to 5-15% and
overnight recoveries only to 20-40%. Recoveries will be worst
midweek when many South-Central AZ areas only rise to 15-20%
overnight. Near to below normal temperatures are expected through
Wednesday, but will warm through the end of the week and lower
desert highs will push back to around the 110 degree mark as early
as Friday, with continued warming through the weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ryan/Benedict
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Benedict