Maricopa, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

036
FXUS65 KPSR 102026
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
125 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will hover near to above normal through the week as
quiet weather conditions persist. More discernible cooling and
modest rainfall chances are likely over the weekend as a weather
system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With H5 heights near 579dm across the forecast area, flat ridging
remains situated over the SW Conus while an elongated upstream
trough was imparting a measure of cyclonic flow forcing increased
cirrus cover streaming inland. Despite periods of thicker high
clouds, forecast confidence is excellent that tropospheric thermal
profiles will support temperatures not far from the climatological
average over the next couple days. Models remain in very good
agreement that a more robust shortwave and energetic jet core will
rapidly move through the Great Basin Tuesday with the primary PV
anomaly propagating along the AZ/UT border. Other than retarding
temperatures a few degrees from persistence, this system will only
produce some enhanced northerly winds down the lower Colorado River
valley with minimal impacts overall across the CWA.

Midtropospheric heights will rebound quickly behind this rapidly
departing system as another low amplitude ridge builds into the
region during the middle of the week. Models are in good agreement
H5 heights will briefly increase into a 582-585dm range with only
moderate guidance spread, suggesting a return to near to above
normal temperatures. Attention then shifts towards a strong trough
tracking along the northern Pacific with ensembles continue to show
this feature intensifying across western CONUS late in the week due
to the development of an anomalous East Pacific meridional H2 jet
streak.

By the weekend, widespread negative height anomalies should
encompass much of the West, however significant spread persists with
respect to the orientation and evolution of the flow pattern.
Unfortunately, the NAEFS ensemble suite has not consolidated towards
a singular solution, and if anything, recent iterations have
introduced more dispersion. The general idea of an elongated,
positively tilted trough sweeping into the region remains
consistent, however the greater uncertainty exists regarding how
much vorticity fills into the trough base and becomes capable of
tapping better quality moisture while also imposing stronger ascent.
Interestingly, the operational GFS (very progressive and sheared)
and ECMWF (deep, closed low) nearly represent the extremes of the
ensemble envelop with the eventual outcome very likely somewhere in
between these two solutions. While the introduction of below normal
temperatures appears to be a given over the weekend, precipitation
chances and coverage remains far more uncertain, and modest NBM POPs
support this model ambiguity.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected during the next 24 hours.
The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit the typical
diurnal tendencies with extended periods of light variability to
calm conditions. Mostly clear skies this morning will give way to
increasing high cirrus clouds heading into this afternoon and
evening, especially over AZ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures near normal through midweek are will temporarily warm
to 5-10 degrees above normal levels later in the week before a
colling trend returns over the weekend. Winds will follow a typical
diurnal upslope/nocturnal drainage component with only some modest
morning ridge top gustiness during the middle of the week. MinRHs
will fall mostly in a 10-15% range through the week with readings
closer to 20-25% over higher terrain of eastern districts. Overnight
recovery will be better in the eastern districts, mostly between 40-
60% with poor to fair overnight recovery (around 20-40%) in lower
elevations and western districts. Overall, dry weather will persist
this week with conditions favorable for any prescribed burning
operations.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...18/Young
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18